UK finances forecast to suffer under most forms of Brexit

Cost of leaving EU will also impede new policy initiatives, thinktank’s report says

Most forms of Brexit will worsen the country’s finances and reduce space for new initiatives to address child poverty, social care and left-behind communities that some argue drove the Brexit vote, a report has found.

Academics at the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank found a positive outcome depended on politicians being able to move on from the Brexit impasse and focus on longer-term challenges including productivity, regional imbalances and democratic reform.

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We set four tests for Brexit. Three years on, all of them are failing | Anand Menon and Jonathan Portes

From the economy to how fair British society is, leaving the EU poses challenges politicians are still far from meeting

Has Brexit been a success? Now there’s a question. Remember how Zhou Enlai famously (albeit apocryphally) declared in 1972 that it was “too early to say” what the impact of the French revolution had been. He must be turning in his grave at this, because the UK hasn’t even left the EU yet – and may well never do so.

However, Brexit is a process, not an event. Whatever happens over the next few months and years, it will dominate UK politics and economics for the foreseeable future. Given this, the third anniversary of the referendum feels like a good moment to take stock.

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Ekrem İmamoğlu: Turkey’s unexpected new hope in fight for democracy

Outside pick for opposition party built on voters’ good faith shown in March elections

Ekrem İmamoğlu was not a well-known figure in Turkish politics before March’s fateful local elections.

But by standing his ground in the fierce battle to become mayor of Istanbul, even after Turkey’s electoral board cancelled his victory, he has become President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most high profile challenger in years and the unexpected new hope for Turkish democracy.

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The Guardian view on Boris Johnson: a question of character | Editorial

Conservative members will choose the next prime minister. The rest of us need to know whom they are picking

Who trusts Boris Johnson? Not, apparently, his team. The paradox of the race to lead the Conservative party, and therefore Britain, is that those convinced that Mr Johnson is an irresistible, unstoppable electoral force at the same time appear terrified that he may encounter meaningful scrutiny. His conversations in Westminster are reportedly shadowed by an MP acting as minder. The televised debates to which he has agreed will take place only after members have received their ballot papers: “If you want the job, you have to turn up for the interviews,” goaded Jeremy Hunt, adding later that his rival “needs to show he can answer difficult questions”.

Perhaps Mr Johnson will formulate answers soon. But at the hustings in Birmingham he was evasive when pressed repeatedly about why police were called in the early hours of Friday to the flat he shares with his partner Carrie Symonds. The man who says the public want straight-talking politicians tried to dismiss and then dodge the question, with a long digression about Routemaster buses and other defensive, rambling evasions.

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Boris Johnson turned politics into a game of personality. The row in his flat matters | Matthew d’Ancona

The would-be prime minister says Brexit just requires brio and confidence. He turned politics into a game of personality

Let’s begin with the straightforward part: any incident in which a woman is heard screaming in her home, and shouting “Get off me!” at a man, instantly becomes a matter not only of public interest but public responsibility.

Related: Hunt ramps up pressure on Johnson to explain police visit

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Why the joke’s on Johnson in a fantasy violence league | Stewart Lee

In the field of satirical revenge attacks, our would-be PM has given us plenty of material to use against him

Images of physical retribution against hated political figures have, rightly or wrongly, been part of the holy fool’s comedic arsenal since the dawn of human civilisation. Effigies of the sparkler-toting anarchist Guy Fawkes have been burnt every November 5th since 1606, while a 17,000-year-old daub on the wall of the Grotte de Niaux in south-west France shows a primitive cave chief having milk squirted over him directly from the lactating teat of a female megatherium. But, in a political climate that has seen a pro-Remain politician murdered in the street by a Brexiter, and even actual milkshakes thrown at both Nigel Farage and that other one who wouldn’t even rape a Labour MP, stock images of satirical revenge violence no longer seem so funny.

As Boris Piccaninny Watermelon Letterbox Cake Bumboys Haircut Bullshit Inconclusive-Cocaine-Event Wall-Spaffer Johnson prepares to take power, unelected and unopposed, modern day alternative so-called “comedians” need to start working out which forms of fantasy violence it is comically acceptable to imagine being meted out to him. Or face the strongest condemnation. Presumably there is no problem with images that Boris Piccaninny Watermelon Letterbox Cake Bumboys Haircut Bullshit Inconclusive-Cocaine-Event Wall-Spaffer Johnson has already introduced into public discourse himself?

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Private sector must be forced to invest in ‘green revolution’, says Labour

John McDonnell aims to enhance party’s environmental credentials

Labour will back measures deterring investment in fossil fuels as part of a new drive to stop the financial sector from funding global heating, John McDonnell will reveal this week.

In the latest attempt by Labour to display its green credentials, the shadow chancellor will use a speech in the City on Monday to commit to using the “full might of the Treasury” to tackle the issue. He will commit the party to forcing the private sector into investing in the “green industrial revolution”.

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This will be a contest, not a coronation, if Jeremy Hunt questions Boris Johnson’s character | Andrew Rawnsley

The foreign secretary can do his party and the country a favour by interrogating his rival’s flaws

The announcement that Jeremy Hunt would be the other finalist in the Tory leadership contest was greeted with a cheer from Boris Johnson’s campaign team and sighs of disappointment among political journalists. Many of my colleagues were salivating over the prospect of a final battle involving Michael Gove. A Gove-Johnson face-off had rich potential to turn into a spectacularly vicious bout of all-in mud wrestling between the two Brexiters. A Hunt-Johnson contest appears, at least at first sight, to offer a much less compelling spectacle, leading to a much more predictable ending.

“God knows how we got that many,” remarked a member of the Hunt campaign team when their candidate just squeaked into second place in the ultimate ballot of MPs. We don’t have to go to God for the answer to that one. As I predicted they would in this space last week, the Johnson team moved around some of their votes to get Mr Hunt into the final because he is their preferred opponent.

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The real reason Republicans are so interested in the census | David Daley

A Republican strategist conceived a clever long-term strategy to maintain conservative power in a changing nation. We must fight back

The supreme court is expected to soon rule on whether the Trump administration can add a question about citizenship to the US census. If you want to understand the real purpose of Republican proposals to add a citizenship question to the US census, a good place to start is last November’s Texas state house elections.

Related: Democrats call for oversight after Trump's Iran airstrikes reversal

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The problem with BJoe iden’s ‘chummy’ politics | Nathan Robinson

You can be the best friend of everyone in Washington, or you can move the country towards justice. But you can’t do both

This week, Joe Biden attracted controversy after waxing nostalgic about working alongside segregationists in the Senate. After Cory Booker suggested Biden should apologize, Biden replied, “Apologize for what?” and insisted there wasn’t a “racist bone in his body.” Biden made it clear that he has no regrets.

Related: What does Biden have in common with Trump? Delusional nostalgia | Moira Donegan

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The left is fighting back, even in Republican states, as it attempts to reshape capitalism | Will Hutton

As Trump announces his candidacy, forces are already mustering to confront him

Behold the new political yobs. The British and American right, once keen to engage intellectually with the left and firmly anchored in business and the middle class, have now become yobs in their evidence-free, argument-free attitude to trade and foreigners. They are guided by noxious prejudice and the simple rule that their flag and interest must rule whatever.

Yobs too in their attitudes to all the decent impulses in society: tolerance; the rule of law (that’s for suckers); a welcome to immigrants, fair play; respect for truth, personal integrity. The triumph of the new nativism is the triumph of the yob. Our societies, let alone our politics, have never been so threatened.

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The problem with Johnson? ‘You never know what can happen next’

Advisers worked to keep him on message all week, but Friday night underlined why he remains a ‘grade one liability’

It was the moment the “Back Boris” team had dreaded but half-expected – when months of careful campaign planning were thrown off course by revelations about their man’s private life. As votes were being counted on Thursday afternoon in the final ballot of MPs for the Tory party leadership, a member of Johnson’s inner circle was upbeat but still on edge. As he paced the Commons corridors he knew Johnson would come top by a mile and reach the final two candidates – but there was no way he would lower his guard.

Asked how it was all going, he replied: “Yes, well, thanks. But you never know what can happen next, do you?”

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Sapped by Brexit, it’s little wonder we dream of doing a Nick Clegg | Nick Cohen

Our decaying political system makes even the most ardent activist yearn to pack it all in

You may not know it but you are about to become Nick Clegg. I don’t want to become Nick Clegg, I hear you protest. The idea is not only repellent but ridiculous. Facebook won’t offer me £1m-plus a year and a Silicon Valley mansion if I sell out. I agree that it won’t. But opting out is far more common than selling out and Clegg is the market leader in both.

I called him in October 2018 to check a point in a piece I was writing. I should have paid more attention to the note of alarm when he realised that a journalist was on the phone. He told me he was in Sheffield. Ah, I said, you are preparing to fight Sheffield Hallam again. He lost the seat to a mentally troubled Labour candidate, who poured out levels of abuse against women, gay people and his own constituents that were too much even for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party. Clegg could have retaken the constituency with ease and gone back to Westminster to champion the Remain cause. He almost laughed at my quaint suggestion. No, he wasn’t thinking of returning to politics. Two days later, I learned why when news broke of his new career. Technology specialists can describe the awfulness of a Liberal Democrat accepting the position of vice-president at a rapacious wannabe monopoly that has facilitated the corruption of liberal democracy by Putin and the super-rich and allowed the mass murder of Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims to be incited on its site.

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Boris Johnson’s character should be an issue for the whole nation | Polly Toynbee

The police being called to Johnson’s flat was the latest dismal episode in a shocking week for the Conservative party

“What a non-story. ‘Couple have row’.” So tweeted security minister Ben Wallace, Boris Johnson’s 2016 campaign manager. But it appears he thought better of it and deleted that tweet when even every ardent Johnson-backing paper splashed the story of the midnight row between Johnson and his girlfriend. The Mail blazons Carrie Symonds’ cries in red, “Get off me … get out of my flat.”

Should the police have been called? Go out with them of an evening, as I did the other day, and they assiduously attend all reports of rows when neighbours hear shouts, screams, crashing crockery and and other indications that a situation may seem to have turned toxic.

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Boris Johnson’s neighbour: ‘There was no response, so we called the police’

Exclusive: neighbour says he hopes anyone would do same after hearing smashing and screaming in early hours

The neighbour who called the police after hearing a row between Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds said they dialled 999 as a last resort after receiving no response from individuals in the flat.

After hearing a row involving smashing and screaming in the early hours of Friday morning, the individual says they discussed how to respond with their partner, out of concern for the safety of those involved.

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Boris Johnson to attend leadership hustings after row with partner

Questions over ex-foreign secretary’s private life dominate battle for No 10

Boris Johnson will attend Tory leadership hustings while embroiled in a scandal after police were called to his home after a loud altercation with his partner.

The Guardian revealed that an argument between Johnson and his partner, Carrie Symonds, a former Conservative party head of press, was heard by a neighbour who called the police and recorded the row.

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Don’t stereotype young remainers. We fear for our futures, not our holidays | Lara Spirit

Our anger over Brexit is often dismissed. But we’re about to start a summer of action, gathering in leave areas across Britain

The current political crisis over Brexit has been a wake-up call for my generation: the doctrine that our parents and grandparents will leave behind a better world no longer holds. But, of course, not every young person feels this way. A significant minority – especially those in towns outside London and the south-east – do not necessarily share the enthusiasm of the 78% of young people who would back remain in a people’s vote on Brexit. And those that do will often have different reasons for their convictions too. We don’t want to leave them behind.

This summer the campaign I’m part of, Our Future Our Choice, will join a tour of the whole country, calling on politicians to let us be heard. We will be gathering in Wolverhampton, Sunderland, Leeds, Glasgow, Derby, Belfast and many more towns and cities over the summer, leading up to one more huge rally in London on 12 October.

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The Trump administration is trying to make war with Iran inevitable

We should view Iran’s recent posturing for what it is: retaliation to the Trump administration’s unnecessary and deliberate provocation

Last night, in response to Iran shooting down an American drone earlier this week, the United States came within one whim of an erratic and unstable president from launching a military strike on Iran.

Like the recent oil tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, the Trump administration has framed the drone incident as if it occurred in a vacuum – implying that the Iranians are launching these (alleged) attacks without provocation, and providing an aura of legitimacy to a possible American military response.

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Jeremy Hunt calls for live TV debates before Tory voting begins

Hunt urges Boris Johnson to take part in at least two debates before ballots are issued

Jeremy Hunt has challenged Boris Johnson to agree to live TV debates before Conservative party members begin voting in the leadership contest. He said the candidates needed to have their character tested as part of the job.

On Friday, the Sky News anchor Kay Burley said Johnson had turned down the chance to take part in a TV debate next Tuesday in front of a Tory-supporting audience.

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Police suspend work with major forensics firm after cyber-attack

More than half of outsourced case work disrupted due to Eurofins security breach

Police have halted all work with the UK’s largest private forensics provider after a ransomware attack, in the latest crisis to hit the forensics sector.

Eurofins, which carries out DNA analysis, toxicology, ballistics and computer forensics work, detected a breach of its system on 2 June. It has emerged that police have suspended all work with the company, thought to amount to more than 50% of outsourced case work.

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Next PM will face huge challenge to command Commons confidence

Recall of Chris Davies leaves Tories with working Commons majority of just three MPs

The next Conservative prime minister will face serious questions over whether they can command the confidence of the House of Commons, MPs have warned, as the party’s already vulnerable majority was put in further danger by the recall of a disgraced MP.

Several MPs told the Guardian they had “huge concerns” about whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would be able to avoid an autumn election, given the Conservatives could lose another MP in an imminent by-election forced by the recall of Chris Davies.

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Mark Field’s rage acts as a litmus test for our divided times | Gaby Hinsliff

The Tory MP has rightly been suspended as a minister. But he has also attracted a disturbing level of support

They came wearing red evening dresses and sashes, like something from a bygone age of suffragette protests. Or perhaps that should be suffragists, the more peaceful wing of the movement. For the climate crisis campaigners who set out to disrupt the chancellor’s annual Mansion House speech to the City had done all they could to look unthreatening, knowing that politicians are understandably jumpy about personal security nowadays. The protest was female-led, Greenpeace explained, in the hope of keeping it calm.

Some hope. The police are investigating precisely what happened when protester Janet Barker walked behind the Conservative MP Mark Field, apparently heading towards the top table holding the great and good. But film of Field leaping up and grappling with her, before frog-marching her out with a hand around her neck, has gone viral for good reason. Whatever the police investigation concludes, it is hard to think of a more toxic image of Conservatism than an angry-looking man in black tie manhandling a woman away from a fancy banquet. Brute male force versus plucky female resistance; cosy privileged club versus outsider somewhere she wasn’t invited. No wonder we can’t stop watching and re-watching it.

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To defeat Boris Johnson, learn the lessons of Donald Trump | Jonathan Freedland

Britons must not repeat the mistakes that have dogged opposition to the US president

All we need now is for Boris Johnson to praise Mark Field, the government-minister-cum-self-appointed-close-protection-officer who thought the best way to deal with a peaceful distributor of leaflets was to ram her into a pillar and grab her by the neck. If Johnson lauds Field as “my kind of guy”, then the already long list of similarities between Britain’s near-certain next prime minister and Donald Trump will get longer still. Compiling that list might once have been an amusing parlour game for politics nerds; now it is essential preparation for what is to come.

For Trump, you will recall, did not share the public shock at one of his party’s lawmakers using physical violence against a citizen exercising a basic democratic right. In the US case, the offender was Republican congressman Greg Gianforte, who bodyslammed a reporter – a Guardian reporter, as it happens – whose desire to ask a question irritated him. Trump offered no condemnation. Instead, the president said: “Any guy that can do a bodyslam, he’s my kind of guy.”

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Back from the cold: Gavin Williamson’s return from political Siberia

Former chief whip kicked out of government over a national security council leak could be back in cabinet within weeks

Less than two months ago, Gavin Williamson was in political Siberia, sacked from his job as defence minister for leaking from the national security council. Yet within weeks he could find himself back at the cabinet table and as the pivotal enforcer for the new prime minister.

The former chief whip is widely credited with delivering the vast numbers of MPs who backed Johnson in the leadership race and one of the most influential figures in Johnson’s camp.

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Carl Beech trial: former Tory MP calls police inquiry a charade

Harvey Proctor tells court he has ‘every right to be indignant’ about £2m Operation Midland

A former Conservative MP who was accused of child sexual abuse and murder by an alleged fantasist has told a court he felt the £2m Scotland Yard inquiry was a “fishing expedition” and a charade.

Harvey Proctor, 72, accused the Metropolitan police of effectively leaking his name to the media in a “quite outrageous” breach after searching his home in March 2015.

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Donald Tusk: Johnson may make Brexit more exciting, but we won’t budge

EU chief says member states are united in rejecting further talks on the withdrawal deal

Brexit may become “even more exciting” when Boris Johnson is in Downing Street but the deal will not change, Donald Tusk has said, as the EU readied itself for a new British prime minister.

An offer to listen to the ideas of whoever replaces Theresa May came with a warning from the European council president and fellow leaders that the withdrawal agreement was final.

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The self-abasement of Johnson’s shameless gofers will not be forgotten | Marina Hyde

From Johnny Mercer to Matt Hancock, the Boris Johnson cheerleader team is covering itself in infamy

Who is the worst minor character in the Borisverse? We have to ask, what with the big man himself only allowed out on an electronic tag for around six minutes’ talking time on the BBC Tory leadership debate. Collectors of vignettes displaying Johnson’s contempt for the public will have enjoyed the spectacle of a takeaway being delivered to his house while the other candidates debated on Channel 4. Encouraging to see him building on his friend David Cameron’s legacy: trotters up even before you’ve screwed the country, instead of only after.

The only other sightings of Johnson saw him accompanied by various childminders to vote for himself in a series of progressively apocalypse-beckoning votes in Westminster this week. Eventually, of course, Johnson himself will come for us all. He’s really the Tories’ Papa Lazarou, with his grotesque circus, his free-form gibberish, his expanding collection of wedding rings. And the rest. AND THE REST.

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Male, southern and middle-aged: meet the Tories choosing the next PM

As the party prepares to select a new leader at a time of national crisis, its membership’s attitudes have hardened

If they love their party, Conservative members have an unusual way of showing it. According to a new survey by YouGov, 54% of party members said they would rather see their own party destroyed than have Brexit not take place. 61% would prefer to see “significant damage to the UK economy”, while 63% would consider Scotland leaving the United Kingdom as a price worth paying.

As they prepare to select the next prime minister at a time of crisis, the attitudes of that group are arguably more consequential for the rest of the country than they have ever been before. And the makeup of the membership appears to be changing – and becoming ever more supportive of a hard Brexit.

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The Mark Field video is chillingly familiar to anyone who recognises male violence | Suzanne Moore

The sight of a minister manhandling a female protester should be shocking, but some felt able to look on – or even defend it

The gut knows. The gut processes what the eye sees. A woman slammed up against a wall. A man, eyes bulging with rage, his hands on her. He pushes her out of the posh dinner, his hands gripping her neck. She is shocked. The gut twists at the familiarity. Male violence so everyday that many will have experienced it, many will have felt sick watching it – and somehow still ashamed to admit that this had happened to them too. Elsewhere, long ago, somewhere more private. No one saw.

Related: Mark Field suspended as minister after grabbing climate protester by neck

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